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Commodity Market Update: April 7, 2006
Apricots: Apricot pricing has become more firm, but is not expected to increase much and is still far lower than last year.
Almonds: Prices for raw almonds has plummeted over the past several months. The lack of demand and a bright outlook for a large 2006 crop has brought almond pricing down considerably. Unless some tragedy occurs to the 2006 crop, we could see even better pricing this fall. However, the market is relatively volatile and the almond board does not want almonds to decrease too far. They (almond board) are going to fight to keep the pricing up.
Cashews: Cashew pricing is stable at this time.
Cocoa: The cocoa market is currently stable, but with the volatile origin of this product stability is never guaranteed. High sugar pricing is going to drive up the cost of all confectionary chocolate items even though the cocoa is moderate.
Dates: The amount of acreage for growing dates has continued to dwindle over the past few years due to increased housing development within the region. It is starting to become an issue with regards to the demand needed of dates. The date crop harvest was less than last year and new crop pricing is higher but should maintain current levels through the year.
Oats: It looks like another bad year for oats. Canada did not have a good harvest due to poor weather conditions and pricing is on the rise. Availability of oats could become an issue later this year. Demand for oats remains high creating even more of a problem for the oat market. As of April, the oat market is still uncertain, but we are hoping for a decrease in May or June.
Peanuts: At this time the peanut market is expected to remain steady.
Pecans: Pecan pricing has decreased this year, but not as much as expected due to a harvest less than was predicted and the fact that the new crop is not of great quality. Many of the shells had small nut meats inside and there was a problem with mold. This was an “on” year which means next year we could see high pecan pricing again.
Pineapple/Papaya: Tropical fruit pricing is stable at this time
Pistachios: The California crop was less than last year, there is little carry over of current crop, and Iranian crops have been damaged by a major freeze with 50% of their crop damaged. However, with the high pricing demand has faded and pricing could lower.
Prunes: Last year’s crop season was terrible and this year’s current crop is, if it can be possible, even worse. The cold spring in California prevented adequate pollination during bloom and other countries are experiencing reduced crops. The world prune volume is expected to be more than 60,000 tons short of worldwide demand! Expect high prices and reduced availability. Be prepared for a very bad year for prunes. Domestic prunes could be difficult to find as the year progresses.
Raisins: There were many initial warnings that the raisin market would increase in price due to many factors including less than favorable weather conditions and demand from various markets that did not use as much in the past. However, we were able to achieve very competitive pricing and our raisins will actually be priced better than last year.
Sugar: Sugar pricing has continued to worsen and there is not much relief in sight. Some believe that these historic highs could last into 2007. The damage from the 2005 hurricanes along with the low availability of beet sugar in the Midwest has become more than the sugar market can absorb.
Sunflower: The new crop of sunflower is abundant. However, because of the terrible harvest last year many farmers were not interested in growing sunflower. In turn, the farmers were offered more money to grow sunflower. This means that even though the crop is healthy there was less acreage planted and it comes at a higher price. Pricing is lower compared to last year’s record highs, but not as low as prior years.
Walnuts: It is expected to be a descent year for walnuts. However, there is little carry over of current crop and demand is strong. Also, the walnuts were sunburned a little more than past years resulting in less light product being available. The light product will be considerably more expensive than combo product this year. Expect combo product to remain consistent.
Wheat: Flour is currently high and may go higher until the Spring Wheat harvest estimates are available. Foreign buyers are holding off on purchases which would make you believe that there should be an abundance of grain available. However, domestic farmers are not selling to the mills thus creating a lack of supply and higher prices.
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